Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker
BRMadigan@iSourceRealEstate.com

RE/MAX West Realty Inc.,
Brokerage
Independently owned and operated

96 Rexdale Blvd. 
Toronto, Ontario 


Phone: 416-745-2300
Toll Free: 1-888-507-0817

 

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Brian Madigan's Market Analysis (November 2014)

December 7, 2014 - Updated: December 7, 2014

 

Toronto Market in Decline in November 2014 (as predicted)

You might be interested in the most recent report from the Toronto Real Estate Board:

 

“Sales & Price Growth Continue in November

TORONTO, December 4, 2014 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Paul Etherington

announced that Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 6,519 residential transactions

through the TorontoMLS system in November 2014. This result was up by 2.6 per cent

compared to 6,354 sales reported in November 2013. Through the first 11 months of 2014,

total sales amounted to 88,462 - up 6.6 per cent compared to the same period in 2013.

 

While the trend of year-over-year sales growth continued, the supply of listings remained

constrained, with active listings at the end of November down in comparison to last year.

"Even with a constrained supply of homes for sale in many parts of the Greater Toronto

Area, buyers continued to get deals done last month. Households remain upbeat about

home ownership because monthly mortgage payments remain affordable relative to

accepted lending standards. This is coupled with the fact that housing has proven to be a

quality long-term investment," stated Mr. Etherington.

 

The average selling price for November transactions was up by 7.4 per cent year-over-year

to $577,936. The year-to-date average price was up by 8.4 per cent to $567,198. The

MLS(R) Home Price Index Composite Benchmark price for November was up by 7.7 per cent

compared to a year earlier.

 

"The robust average price growth experienced throughout 2014 has been fundamentally

sound, with demand high relative to supply. Strong competition between buyers has

exerted upward pressure on selling prices. Barring a substantial shift in the relationship

between sales and listings in the GTA, price growth is expected to continue through 2015,"

said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.’

 

So, what do you think of that? Rising prices, short supply, numbers of sales up! Obviously, that should mean upward pressure on the price….right?

 

Well, no, look closely, nothing was actually said about the monthly numbers.

 

Let’s have a closer look ourselves:

 

2014

January                $526,965

February              $552,857

March                  $557,982

April                    $578,358

May                     $584,902

June                     $569,284

July                      $550,658

August                 $546,782

September            $574,338

October                $587,795

November            $577,936

 

The high water mark this year was October. That was different and unpredictable. That deviated from the norm. We would have expected the height of the market to have been in May. Now, we are off about $10,000from October. That seems normal.

 

Let’s have a closer look. What happened last year?

 

2013

January                $482,028

February              $509,447

March                  $517,247

April                    $524,823

May                     $540,581

June                     $529,614

July                      $512,286

August                 $501,742

September            $532,455

October                $539,354

November            $538,347

December             $520,189

 

Last year, the height of the market was in May. The average sale price was $540,581. In November, the price dropped to $538,189, that’s $2,392 or 0.04% (less than one half of one percent).

 

This year, the average sale price in May was $584,902 and in November, the price dropped to $577,936, that’s $6,966 or 0.01 % (one percent). The decrease off the peak of the Spring market is 2 and one half times the amount that it was last year.

 

Is this information meaningful or not? Maybe! We’ll have to watch to see what happens. It just looks like October 2014 was a little too high.

 

What’s in store as we go forward:

 

  1. lower prices in December, and then
  2. a resumption of increased prices in January.

 

Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker

www.iSourceRealEstate.com


Tagged with: market review treb statistics decline
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Brian Madigan LL.B. Broker

RE/MAX West Realty Inc. Brokerage

Independently owned and operated

96 Rexdale Blvd. , Toronto Ontario,

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