GTA’s Market “Explosive at 50.85% Annualized Rate” in February 2017
Let’s have a look at the Toronto and GTA real estate market. Here’s the report from the Toronto Real Estate Board, just released today:
Sales Up and Listings Down in February
TORONTO, March 3, 2017 – Toronto Real Estate Board President Larry Cerqua announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,014 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in February 2017.
Despite the fact that February 2016 had one more day due to the leap year day, this result was up on a year-over-year basis by 5.7 per cent compared to 7,583 sales reported last year.
“The February statistics tell me that many Greater Toronto Area households continue to view home ownership as a great long-term investment. The high demand for ownership housing we’re seeing is broad-based, with strong sales growth for most low-rise home types and condominium apartments. This makes sense given the results of a recent consumer survey undertaken for TREB by Ipsos, which found an even split between intending first-time buyers and existing homeowners who indicated that they were planning on purchasing a home in 2017,” said Cerqua.
While the demand for ownership housing grew over the past year, new listings entered into TREB's MLS® System in February were down on a year-over-year basis by 12.5 per cent to 9,834. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark Price was up by 23.8 per cent compared to February 2016. Similarly, the average selling price was up by 27.7 per cent year-over-year to $875,983.
Annual rates of price growth continued to be strongest for low-rise home types, particularly detached houses. Growth rates for condominium apartment prices were also in the double digits, likely a result of strong demand from first-time buyers.
"The listing supply crunch we are experiencing in the GTA has undoubtedly led to the double digit home price increases we are now experiencing on a sustained basis, both in the low-rise and high-rise market segments. Until we see a marked increase in the number of homes available for sale, expect very strong annual rates of price growth to continue," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.
Would you like to know how the market is doing?
Set out below are the numbers for the start of 2016 followed by the end of the month numbers for the balance of the year and the first two months of 2017.
The average purchase prices for a single family home in the Greater Toronto Area, which includes condominiums, co-operatives, townhouses, semi-detached and detached, are as follows:
$608,714 January 1st
$630,193 January 31st
$777,181 November highest price
$730,472 January 1st (same as December 31st)
$769,339 January 31st
$875,983 February 28th
The high water mark in 2016 was November. Average prices are up $98,802 since that time. That’s only three months ago! That’s 12.71% in real terms for just one quarter. If that rate were annualized, it would be four times that percentage rate or 50.85%. Such an accelerated rate is unprecedented and unsustainable.
Let’s look at the beginning of 2016, which was 14 months ago. Average prices are up $267,269 which is 43.91% in real terms. If we move that to a 12 month or annual rate of rate, then it would be 37.63%.
Essentially, that means if we go back to the beginning of 2016, the annual rate of increase is 37.63%. That’s true! That is in real numbers. That already happened.
When we are talking about the 50.85% rate, that's projected, that hasn’t happened yet, but over the last three months we are travelling at that speed.
Real estate is always interesting!
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker