Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker
BRMadigan@Rogers.com

RE/MAX West Realty Inc.,
Brokerage
Independently owned and operated

96 Rexdale Blvd. 
Toronto, Ontario 


Phone: 416-745-2300

Cell: 647-404-8150 
Toll Free: 1-888-507-0817

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Toronto Market Continues to Decline Over August 2018

September 6, 2018 - Updated: September 6, 2018

Toronto Market Continues to Decline Over August 2018
 

The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) has just released its August statistics:
 

GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats TORONTO, ONTARIO, September 6, 2018 –
 

Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced sales and price increases on a year-over-year basis in August. Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,839 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in August 2018 – an 8.5 per cent increase compared to August 2017.
 

Both the average selling price, at $765,270, and the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for August 2018 were up compared to the same month in 2017, by 4.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively.
 

The average selling price increased by more than the MLS® HPI Composite due, at least in part, to a change in the mix of sales compared to last year. Detached home sales were up by double digits on a year-over-year percentage basis – substantially more than many other less-expensive home types.
 

“It is encouraging to see a continued resurgence in the demand for ownership housing. Many home buyers who had initially moved to the sidelines due to the Ontario Fair Housing Plan and new mortgage lending guidelines have renewed their search for a home and are getting deals done much more so than last year. In a region where the economy remains strong and the population continues to grow, ownership housing remains a solid long-term investment,”
 

said Mr. Bhaura.

 

Month-over-month sales and price growth also continued in August. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, August 2018 sales were up by two per cent compared to July 2018. The seasonally adjusted August 2018 average selling price was down slightly by 0.2 per cent compared to July 2018, following strong monthly increases in May, June and July.
 

“Market conditions in the summer of 2018, including this past August, were tighter than what was experienced in the summer of 2017. In August, the annual rate of sales growth outpaced the annual rate of new listings growth. We only have slightly more than two-and-a-half months of inventory in the TREB market area as a whole and less than two months of inventory in the City of Toronto. This means that despite the fact the sales remain off the record highs from 2016 and 2017, many GTA neighbourhoods continue to suffer from a lack of inventory. This could present a problem if demand continues to accelerate over the next year, which is expected,”
 

said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
 

COMMENT
 

Here are the average sale prices as reported by TREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments:
 

 

Average Prices              Month

 

2017

 

$730,124                       January 1st

$768,351                       January 31st

$876,363                       February

$915,126                       March

$918,170                       April

$862,149                       May

$791,987                       June

$745,896                       July

$730,907                       August

$774,705                       September

$780,652                       October

$761,397                       November

$734,824                       December

 

2018

 

$734,824                       January 1st

$735,838                        January 31st

$767,799                        February

$784,668                        March

$805,116                        April

$803,598                        May

$808,056                        June

$782,215                        July

$765,270                        August

 


Comment

 

Average Prices

 

The average price has risen from $734,824 at the beginning of the year to $808,056 in June and then dropped down to $765,270 by the end of August, that’s an increase of $30,446 which is a 4.14% increase in the eight month period. If that were to continue (which is entirely speculative), it would be 6.21% over a one year period. That’s the present annual growth rate on an annual basis.

 

Maybe we should go back to the beginning of 2017 and see what those numbers show?

 

The average price would have risen from $730,124 to $765,270, that’s an increase of $35,146 or 4.81% over the full 20 month period, or expressed annually as 2.88%. That’s important since if we were simply to calculate on a straight line basis, market performance for the last 20 months, we come up with 2.88%.

 

Naturally, the 2.88% completely removes the Spring of 2017, February, March, April and May from the equation. We are simply asking the question: “how has the market performed since the beginning of 2017”?

 

Here are the recent numbers: $804,842, $803,681, $807,871 over the April, May and June, basically holding steady, no serious ups or downs. But, then we had July at $782,215 followed by August at $765,270.

 

The year 2017 was unusual, it was a significant aberration from the normal trends.
 

Now, it looks like we are back to seeing the regular patterns.
 

The market increases in January, February, March and April, reaches a peak in May (1st,15th, 31st ), decreases June, July and August, increases in September and October and decreases again in November and December.
 

In June this year we witnessed the peak for the year. However, it now looks like the usual cycle is resuming.

 

We no longer have rapidly escalating prices. 2.88% is like bank interest.
 

If you are selling, it would make sense to take advantage of the Fall market, and if you are buying, then the current rate which normalizes the period starting with January 2017 looks very attractive.
 

 

Volume of Transactions


 

This is what happened in 2017:


 

Sales                     Month

 

5,154                    January

7,955                    February

11,953                  March

11,466                  April

10,066                  May

7,893                    June

5,870                    July

6,308                    August

6,334                    September

7,070                    October

7,327                    November

4,877                    December

 

2018

 

3,989                    January

5,151                    February

7,194                    March

7,763                    April

7,743                    May

8,082                    June

6,949                    July

6,839                    August

53,780                  total for eight months
 

 

Previous Years


 

92,273                  all of 2017

113,040                all of 2016

101,213                all of 2015

92,782                  all of 2014
 

 

What happened to all the Buyers? Will they come back to the market?
 

 

It is interesting to see that the segment of the market namely “detached homes” has increased substantially.  That’s the start of a normal market. Condos are the last to increase in the cycle, and they have moved up significantly compared with detached. Buyers will buy what they can afford!
 

 

The real estate market is always interesting. If you would like to discuss the market generally, give me a call at 416-745-2300.
 

 

Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker

www.iSourceRealEstate.com

 


Tagged with: toronto market august 2018 price lowers slightly
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Brian Madigan LL.B. Broker

RE/MAX West Realty Inc. Brokerage

Independently owned and operated

96 Rexdale Blvd. , Toronto Ontario,

Phone: 416-745-2300

BRMadigan@Rogers.com

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