Toronto Market Normalizes in October 2017
WE have been anxiously awaiting the October 2017 results. In essence, the market is back to “normal”.
Here is the report from TREB:
GTA REALTORS® Release October Stats TORONTO, ONTARIO, November 2, 2017 –
Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos reported 7,118 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2017.
This result represented an above-average increase between September and October of almost 12 per cent, pointing to stronger fall market conditions.
On a year-over-year basis, October sales were down compared to 9,715 transactions in September 2016. Total sales reported through the first 10 months of 2017 amounted to 80,198 – down from 99,233 for the same time period in 2016.
“Every year we generally see a jump in sales between September and October. However, this year that increase was more pronounced than usual compared to the previous ten years. So, while the number of transactions was still down relative to last year’s record pace, it certainly does appear that sales momentum is picking up,” said Mr. Syrianos.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark price was up by 9.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October. Annual rates of price growth were strongest for townhouses and condominium apartments.
The average selling price for October transactions was $780,104 – up by 2.3 per cent compared to the average of $762,691 in October 2016.
“The housing market in the GTA has been impacted by a number of policy changes at the provincial and federal levels. Similar to the track followed in the Greater Vancouver Area, it appears that the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan, including the tax on foreign buyers, is starting to unwind,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
Here are the average sale prices as reported by TREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments:
Over the calendar year 2016, the average price went from $622,121 to $730,124, that’s an increase of $108,003 or $17.36%. That was a lot. The usual increase had been in the range of 6%, 7% or 8% annually.
Kindly note that the January number here is January 31st, the $622,121 is actually December 31st 2015, which naturally is the commencement for 2016.
The current price is $780,104. That’s still reasonably close to the end of January number this year at $768,124, and very close to the November 2016 figure, which happened to be the highest in 2016 at $777,091.
Let’s start out at the beginning of 2016 and compare that to now. We went from $622,121 to $780,104, which was a $157,983 increase or 25.39% over 22 months, or 0.0114% per month which is 13.85% annually. So, that’s still high, but it’s more reasonable. That’s the performance number from the start of 2016.
The traditional sequence over several decades is that the market starts off in January, increases in February, increases in March, increases in April and reaches a peak on the 1st, 15th or 31st of May, it then declines in June, declines in July and declines again in August, then it reverses itself in September with an increase, followed by an increase in October where it reaches a second peak for the year on Halloween, followed by a decrease in November and another decrease in December. Then, the cycle starts over again.
Last year there was an aberration. The peak of the 2016 market was November. That was an indicator of “pent up demand”.
This height of the market this year was in April. That was due to the fact that prices “got out of hand”. Now, we are reaching a more normalized market period.
The decline in June, July and August was predictable, as was the increase in September. The October results are quite predictable, and there were no surprises here.
Let’s do another comparison. We’ll start at the beginning of 2017 and compare that to now. We went from $730,124 to $780,104, which was a $49,980 increase or 6.84% over 10 months, or 0.0684% per month which is 8.21% annually. That’s completely normal. That’s the performance number from the start of 2017.
You will notice, of course, that the escalation and retreat in the Spring are taken out of the equation.
Ordinarily, we might expect annual increases in real estate values to run in the 6% to 8% range. And, that’s exactly where we are. Everything is completely normal.
The Spring market was different. There was excessive demand, and no inventory. If you listed and sold, and your Buyers indeed were able to close, then this worked out well for you. If you were a Buyer, you likely overpaid. In time, the market will solve this problem for you. If however, you failed to arrange your financing appropriately, then you might not have been able to close. This may have exposed you to the loss of your deposit and thousands in addition for other damages, costs, carrying charges and expenses of the Seller. The Seller has two years to sue, so you might not even know your potential liability for quite some time.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker