Toronto Media Scrambles to Understand the Market (July 2017
It’s interesting and everyone likes to talk about it. In fact, just about everyone claims to be an expert, particularly the Toronto media.
Let’s have a look at the most recent report from the Toronto Real Estate Board:
"Market Continued to Adjust in July
TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 3, 2017 –
Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 5,921 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in July 2017.
This result was down by 40.4 per cent on a year over-year basis, led by the detached market segment – both in the City of Toronto and surrounding regions. While sales were down, the number of new listings reported were only slightly (+5.1 per cent) above last year’s level.
“A recent release from the Ontario government confirmed TREB’s own research which found that foreign buyers represented a small proportion of overall home buying activity in the GTA. Clearly, the year-over-year decline we experienced in July had more to do with psychology, with would-be home buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how market conditions evolve,” said Mr. Syrianos.
“Summer market statistics are often not the best indicators of housing market conditions. We generally see an uptick in sales following Labour Day, as a greater cross-section of would-be buyers and sellers start to consider listing and/or purchasing a home. As we move through the fall, we should start to get a better sense of the impacts of the Fair Housing Plan and higher borrowing costs,” said TREB CEO John DiMichele.
The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark price was up by 18 per cent on a year-over-year basis. However, the Composite Benchmark was down by 4.6 per cent relative to June.
Monthly MLS® HPI declines were driven more so by single-family home types. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by five per cent year-over-year to $746,218.
“Home buyers benefitted from more choice in the market this July compared to the same time last year. This was reflected in home prices and home price growth. Looking forward, if we do see some would-be home buyers move off the sidelines and back into the market without a similar increase in new listings, we could see some of this newfound choice erode. The recent changes in the sales and price trends have masked the fact that housing supply remains an issue in the GTA,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis."
Have a look at the average sale prices for single family homes in the GTA which includes all building types, detached, semi-detached, townhouses and condominium apartments:
Right now, we are in the mid - 740,000 range. We also saw that in June 2016. That year started at $630,000 and ended with an increase of $100,000 at $730.000. That’s a big jump! And, it’s enough to get the market “excited”. But, it’s not going to happen year after year.
Effectively, over the longer term, we are looking at 6%.7% or 8% annual increases.
Just look at the facts, and ignore all the “spin” that you see and hear!
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker