Tracking Prices in 2014 in the GTA
It is important to know that the prices are going in the right direction. This year they are quite predictable.
Have a look:
1 January $523,013
31 January $526,927
28 February $552,726
31 March $557,725
30 April $577,898
That is an increase of $54,885 in the price of a single family home this year in the GTA. That works out to about 10%.
The real estate market cycle will generally have prices rising in January, February, March and April, peaking then sometime in May and then declining in June and throughout the summer months. Actually, sometimes this is the 30 April number, which could be taken as the 1 May figure. So, in that regard the May peak could be 1 May, 15 May of 31 May.
This year, you will notice that the trend is quite predictable so far.
While there is a shortage of listings, transactions are up. This means that some of those deals have come out of inventory. But, the prices are being pushed up!
The total number of sales are up to compared to last year:
31 January 4,229 4,106
28 February 5,613 5,699
31 March 7,537 8,067
30 April 9,536 9,706
Total 26,915 27,578
When you examine sales closely, you will see that there were 663 more transactions in 2014 than in the same period in 2013. That’s about 2%.
Looking forward to May, what might we reasonably expect?
Some of the better properties become available in May. These are the premium properties. They have been withheld from the market since they are the best ones, and will sell well in a short period of time. There are more of them available in May than at other times. Thus, we might expect the 2014 peak to be sometime in May, simply because there is no information on the horizon which would suggest anything else.
- Affordability is high
- Interest rates remain low
- Prices are moving upward
- Pool of Potential buyers is in creasing
- Longer term investment in real estate seems safe, secure, reliable and predictable
So, all in all, this is a good time to buy since there are no major negative factors out there.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker