TREB’s 2017 Forecast
The Toronto Real Estate Board just produced its 2017 Forecast. As follows:
TREB RELEASES MARKET YEAR IN REVIEW & OUTLOOK REPORT 2017 AT ECONOMIC SUMMIT
JANUARY 31, 2017
The Toronto Real Estate Board will release its annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report today at its Economic Summit being held at Toronto’s Parkview Manor.
The report provides a look forward into the 2017 housing market and tackles top-of-mind issues, including consumer intentions, foreign buying activity in the Greater Toronto Area, impact of transportation infrastructure on housing affordability, and the lack of housing supply.
“This report will be extremely useful to anyone with an interest in the housing market in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including REALTORS® and their clients, housing industry stakeholders, and all levels of government.
One standout for me in the research conducted by Ipsos was the continued importance of the REALTOR®. Over 80 per cent of likely buyers are planning on engaging the services of a REALTOR® in their purchase this year.
This shows the value TREB Member REALTORS® add to the transaction. Home ownership is a great investment and TREB Member REALTORS® are professionals who will expertly guide you through each step of the process,” said TREB President Larry Cerqua.
TREB is forecasting another strong year for home sales through its MLS® System in 2017, with more than 100,000 sales forecast for the third consecutive year. Between 104,500 and 115,500 home sales are expected this year, with a point forecast of 110,000 – down slightly from 113,133 sales reported by GTA REALTORS® in 2016.
Ipsos, on behalf of TREB, undertook a home buyers survey in November 2016. The survey focused on consumer buying intentions in 2017. Compared to a similar survey conducted at the end of 2015, the number of likely buyers was down slightly.
However, GTA households still seemed upbeat about ownership housing. This included first-time buyers, whose share of overall buying intentions increased to 53 per cent from 49 per cent a year earlier.
“While changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines and higher borrowing costs may impact some would-be home buyers, the big impediment will be the lack of inventory.
Active listings at the end of December were at their lowest point since before the year 2000. It is unlikely that the shortage of listings will improve to any great degree over the course of the next year.
This will put a ceiling on sales growth,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
There’s a prediction of 110,000 transactions, that’s down from the 113,000 transactions in 2016.
That will place upward pressure on prices. Interestingly enough, there’s no real prediction here. So, I suppose it’s just “wait and see”.
From my own perspective, there are two areas: Toronto itself and the “905”. Toronto prices surged initially and the 905 played “catch up” last year, to an extent, this is the “ripple effect”.
At the moment, the area just beyond the 905 is accelerating exponentially. Of course, that’s still the ripple effect.
If you would like to discuss the market, please give me a call.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker